Who Is Favourite To Win Strictly

So, picture this: my aunt Brenda, who once confused a paso doble with a tango, texted me at 10pm last Saturday. She wasn’t asking about my day. She was demanding, with all caps, to know who was “the one” to win Strictly this year. I had to laugh – because she’s not alone. Everyone, from your nan to your pub quiz team, suddenly becomes a dance expert this time of year.

This whole frenzy, my friend, is exactly why we’re here. We’re not just talking about a glitzy show. We’re dissecting a national obsession, and the million-quid question: who’s actually going to lift that glitterball trophy? Forget politics; this is the real battleground of British autumn evenings. Grab a cuppa, and let’s sift through the sequins.

The Early Front-Runners: No Surprises Here

Right out of the gate, the bookies have their favourites. And let’s be honest, they’re usually right about 80% of the time – which is terrifying, considering they’re professional guessers. As of right now, it’s a tight race at the top, with a couple of names pulling ahead.

At the top of the pile is Layton Williams, the Bad Education star. The man has more stage experience than most of the professional dancers combined, if you count his West End turns. He’s got the sharp lines, the musicality, and the “I’m here to win” energy that sometimes rubs people the wrong way. (You know the type – annoyingly talented, right?)

Hot on his heels is Nigel Harman, the former EastEnders heartthrob. He’s got that suave, mature charm that the judges adore, plus he’s clearly been sneaking in extra practice. His frame is solid, and he doesn’t look terrified, which is already a win in Week 3. Side note: why do older guys always look better in a tailcoat? Unfair.

The Dark Horses You Shouldn’t Ignore

But here’s the thing about Strictly – it’s a marathon, not a sprint. The early favourites often crumble under the pressure, or they get a dodgy song choice that sends them packing. Look at the quiet ones, the ones building momentum like a slow-burn volcano.

Ellie Leach, the former Coronation Street actress, is that classic “surprise package.” She started off a bit shy, but her Latin dances have an unexpected fire. She’s getting the “journey” edit, which the British public loves – it means she could steal the trophy from a technically better dancer. Remember when Stacey Dooley won? Same vibe.

Then you have Bobby Brazier, the model and son of the late Jade Goody. He’s got the moves, the charisma, and a heartbreaking backstory that makes you want to root for him. His ballroom is a bit – how shall I put this? – stiff – but he’s learning fast. If he nails a romantic Waltz, consider him a finalist.

Why the Bookies Are Already Sweating

This year, the odds are shifting weekly, which is a nightmare for anyone who placed a bet in Week 1. Remember Angela Rippon? The 78-year-old newsreader who lifted her leg like a Rockette? She blew everyone’s minds. Literally, my jaw was on the floor.

But here’s the irony: the public often votes against the professional dancer. They want a story, a transformation. Someone like Zara McDermott, the Love Island alum, is improving fast, but she’s fighting against the “reality star” stigma. (We can be snobs, can’t we?) Meanwhile, the actual best dancer might get eliminated in a shocking dance-off, because we voted for the guy who cried on Claudia’s sofa.

The Judges’ Favourite vs. The Public’s Sweetheart

Let’s talk about the elephant in the ballroom: the tension between what the judges want and what we want. Craig Revel Horwood gives a 7 for a flawless routine, then turns around and gives an 8 for a “well, you didn’t fall over.” It’s chaos.

Right now, Layton Williams has the judges in his pocket. He gets 9s and 10s while others get 7s. But if the public decides he’s “too good,” they’ll find themselves voting for the journey dancer instead. That’s why Angela Scanlon, the presenter, is a sneaky contender. She’s consistent, charming, and not threatening to win – so people actually remember to vote for her.

My Gut Feeling (and a Pro Tip)

If I had to put a tenner on it today, I’d say the final is between Layton Williams and Nigel Harman. One is the virtuoso, the other is the gentleman. But the winner? It depends on who gets the public vote in the final week. You see the problem, right?

Here’s a pro tip: watch the “rehearsal room” footage on the BBC website. You can see who actually laughs with their partner and who just looks stressed. The chemistry between the celeb and the pro matters more than a perfect heel turn. Right now, Ellie Leach and her partner Vito are giving off major “best mates” energy, and that wins votes.

So, who is the favourite? The bookies say Layton. The purists say Nigel. My Aunt Brenda says “the one with the nice smile.” But really, the favourite is whoever you don’t want to miss next Saturday. That’s the real magic of Strictly: the glitterball will find its way to the person who makes you clap your hands and forget your own worries for 90 seconds. And that, my friend, is why we tune in.